“Mr. Lai, do I have your full attention?”
I turn back to the tablet with a sigh, away from the curling smoke and the sirens in the distance.
“Please continue the questions. Studies tell us that superforecasting is an important skill to develop early, especially for neurodivergent children.”
The screen shows what looks like a poorly cropped cutout of an excel spreadsheet and the following question:
See Figure A for US Transportation Security Agency information for the year 2023. How many travellers did the US Transportation Security Agency (TSA) screen in May 2023?
A logarithmic slider starts at 100 and ends somewhere in the millions. I drag it to a random position and submit my answer. The man in the light blue suit jacket and the dull red tie smiles. “Great work.”
Before he can advance to the next question I cover his tablet with my hand. “What’s the point of this?”
The reply is instant. “Superforecasting has been declared as one of the most desirable traits for university admissions and corporate consultancy hiring, as well as forming a core component of most GQ measurements. Given the state of global communications, predictive capacity is more important than ever. It is also one of the national priorities for the 2030 Climate Adaptation Plan—”
I can’t tell if he’s happy he gets to recite his spiel or because he thinks he’s right, but I interrupt him anyways. “You don’t need to be a superforecaster to know where the world’s headed.”
He jerks my hand away with a little more force than strictly necessarily, twitches, adjusts his thick, black, camera-equipped glasses. “Maintaining productivity in areas like logistics, planning, and effective disaster mitigation all rely on superforecasting—”
“So it’s good for getting a job?”
He sighs, no doubt thinking about why he must spend his time debating sixteen year olds. “Yes, you can say that. And it helps keep our society running. Which you don’t care about, of course.”
“And what if society isn’t around in thirty years for people to do logistics, planning, and effective disaster mitigation?”
He gives a sad, derisive, pandering chuckle. “Well then, young man, you’d better learn to farm real fast, don’t you?”